Three decades of Orygen’s research has been brought together to create the largest ever dataset of young people at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis, offering new insights into those most at risk of transition to severe illness, and paving the way for more effective prediction and treatment of psychotic disorders.
A new study, led by Associate Professor Scott Clark and Dr Simon Hartmann from the University of Adelaide and published in World Psychiatry, used the Orygen dataset of 1245 UHR individuals to analyse the transition to psychosis, and develop a model for predicting an individual’s risk of this transition.
The UHR criteria capture help-seeking individuals with sub-threshold psychotic symptoms. They were devised by Orygen researchers to identify individuals at high risk of developing a psychotic disorder, with the aim of putting preventative treatments in place.
The new dataset was aggregated from Orygen studies undertaken between 1995 and 2020, and offers insight into the risk and protective factors for psychotic disorders, the mechanisms that drive their onset, and the most effective treatments for delaying or preventing the onset of psychotic disorders in young people at high risk.
Co-author and head of Orygen’s Ultra High Risk for Psychosis Research Program, Professor Barnaby Nelson, said the development of the dataset was a significant step in psychosis research.
“This data is very important to better understand the factors involved in the onset of psychosis, and why some young people at high risk progress to a psychotic disorder while others do not,” Professor Nelson said.
“The newly assembled dataset is the largest UHR cohort to date, with the most extensive longitudinal follow-up, which is important in helping us improve accurate assessment of an individual’s risk and intervene earlier.”
Professor Nelson said Orygen had been at the forefront of early psychosis research in Australia for over 30 years, and the data collected from decades of research provided a unique resource for further investigation of predictive modelling across UHR outcomes.
“It’s exciting to see this data being used to better understand risk factors and possibly being used for selection of individuals to include in clinical trials of new treatments,” Professor Nelson said.
“The better we are at identifying young people at the greatest risk, the better chance we have of intervening early and providing targeted support to ensure these young people make a full recovery.
“The new ‘transition to psychosis model’ is an extremely positive development, and Orygen is proud to have collaborated with our colleagues in the NHMRC funded PRE-EMPT Centre of Research Excellence in this work.”
Results from the new modelling showed that UHR young people with more severe disordered thinking and unusual thought content, more severe negative symptoms, poorer social functioning, and a longer duration of symptoms prior to accessing treatment were more likely to transition to psychosis.